Forest Policy and Carbon Sequestration Potential of China---An Analysis using Global Timber Market Model


Forest carbon sequestration is an effective way to cope with climate change and achieve the goal of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". At present, China has not implemented a national forest carbon sequestration policy; instead, China focuses on promoting forest carbon sequestration based on the existing forest policies. This study studies two key forest projects in China, namely, the banning of commercial logging of natural forests and the returning farmland to forests. Using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the forestry sector: Global Timber Model (GTM), and incorporating the Eighth National Forest Inventory Census Data, we project the dynamic response of wood production, market price, management intensity and forest carbon sink under different policy scenarios. The results show that the logging banning could not induce additional carbon sinks in the short-term; the policy of returning farmland to forests has a strong positive effect on carbon sinks in the short and long term; Without any policy interventions, China's forest stock can still achieve an increase of 3.723 billion cubic meters between 2005 and 2030, accounting for 82.73% of the forestry target (4.5 billion cubic meters) promised by the National Independent Contribution (NDC).

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